Grain Gleanings

Grain Marketing

By Hunter Behrens, Grain Originator, Lyons

Since the beginning of March headline trading continues due to uncertainty of US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, EU, Japan and China. The uncertainty comes from not knowing how those countries will retaliate making the market jump one way or other depending how bullish or bearish the headline sounds. Today (3/27) corn futures are lower near 4.50. The tariffs have definitely not helped the corn market, but the recent selling is due to better South America weather and average trade estimate for US 2025 corn acres and carryout higher than 2024. Adding onto it, export sales haven’t been awful but below USDA goal.

The soybean market has also been affected by the tariffs with China slowing their soybean business with the US and looking to do more business with South America. Weekly US soybean exports sales were only 12 million bushels seasonally. We are above last year’s bean exports by nearly 200 million bushels but still 250 million bushels below the USDA goal. Another underlying factor is that South America soybean crop will be 17 mmt above last year’s production which could begin to slow new US soybean sales.

Spring has sprung and agronomy work has started and very soon planting will be in full swing. Let’s hope for a speedy and safe planting season to all and get ahold of your area’s grain originator to talk marketing for old and new crop grain.

3/28/2025

Grains

By Jake Moret, Grain Originator

Ethanol production is doing fine but the better side of that is we are drawing down ethanol stocks as we were nearing the 2020 covid spike. We’ve also seen another week of strong corn export sales which continues to shrink our carry-out.  I currently feel one of the reasons a corn rally is being held back is due to the large number of expected new crop acres.  It is dry across corn country however we haven’t lost a crop in March. Corn basis has firmed across the trade area, and I wouldn’t shy away from locking in basis or watching it closely if futures improve.

Exporters are feeling timid over unknown shipping fees related to Chinese-operated vessels. Depending on the bushels moved these fees could be between 10-27 cents for soybeans. This doesn’t mean all boats going to China just the boats that are Chinese built. The 45Z guidance for biofuels and carbon is starting to get long-winded and it’s time to get some direction so farmers can plan. Beans are having a hard time finding bullish news without energy demand.

USDA announced the ECAP payments, and they are $30.76 for wheat, $29.76 for soybeans and $42.91 for corn.

3/21/2025

Tariffs or Not

By Matt Morog, Grain Department Manager

Prepare for major volatility as the world navigates Tariff Wars 2.0. A lot of the potential tariffs will be used as leverage. Unfortunately, ag commodities will be a major punching bag. Overall, the fundamentals will reign supreme until proven otherwise. I think we rally out of these lows until we confirm just how many corn and bean acres we plant. The other commodity we need to be watching is the crude market. If crude keeps dripping lower, it’s going to affect soy and corn crush. Crude is essentially at the lows it has bounced from the past four years so watching it closely will be needed. The current administration is very determined to lower government spending and reduce interest rates. It’s going to have some costs associated with it.

3/7/2025

Central Farmers has a mobile app that provides real time account information at your hands. By partnering with barchart, we are able to empower you, our producers, to make informed and quicker business decisions with CFC. With our app you can:

• Access scale tickets virtually in real time, allowing you to know how many bushels you have delivered and how much still needs to be delivered. You are able to see the grade factors on each scale ticket such as Moisture and Test Weight.
• Access your contracts that you have with any CFC location. You will be able to see the status of any contract to find out whether it is filled or is still open.
• Access real-time bushel balances of your grain across all CFC locations.
• Access delayed cash bids for all of our CFC locations

You can find our App on Google Play for Android devices or the App Store for iPhones by searching for Central Farmers. Scan the QR code below for quicker download process. Download it today!