South Dakota State University, through a grant from the US Army Corps of Engineers, is seeking land for weather stations across the state. They have 95 stations that are currently live with the end goal being a station available within 20 miles no matter where you are located. This map shows the areas they still need coverage for.

While not always possible, the ideal site has the following characteristics:

• Relatively flat, open acre with no pavement or crops within 100 feet
• No obstructions within a distance of ten times their height and no structures within 300 feet
• Soil common to the area, not in a high/low spot
• Not too close to irrigation, lakes, etc.
• Accessible year round with a truck and at least one bar of Verizon signal

If you have land or know of someone that might be interested here is a link to the application process.

https://climate.sdstate.edu/host/application/

The information on their site is free to everyone and can be accessed here https://climate.sdstate.edu/

The best take on the market I can get so far was said most concisely by a DTN analyst at a meeting recently. My simple takeaways were that this could be the year of price stabilization as we see cow liquidations slowing down, but at the same time there’s no real retention being seen, just herd number maintenance. We are still going to see supplies tightening, which means price will continue to climb, but maybe slowly. This cycle has been a lot more of a slow climb to what might soon be the top, unlike in 2014, and whatever amount of rebuild we see/will see also points to being gradual, unlike 2015. Therefore, when prices drop, the crash of the last cycle shouldn’t be. The cow/calf man still has a lot of control this year and next.

The other big market takeaway that was eye opening to hear is that with tariffs and border closures and openings, cattle on feed and total exports are only down 1 and 3% respectively. The countries that will play with us are playing and the ones that won’t are getting charged for it. That is a bold statement, but it does seem to be truth in the livestock market.

The other topic I’ve heard a good bit about lately is 1^st trimester nutrition. We have seen good rain all over our trade area, but stay cognizant of the pastures, cow comfort, and draw from the calves. Diligent management along with a good mineral program are key to reproductive success.

Reach out to any of us at CFC, we’d love to have a conversation about what we can do to keep your bottom dollar as strong as possible.

Corn and Soybean prices rebounded this week after a friendly data dump of the USDA WASDE Report last Friday that actually sent prices slumping. This price action we’ve seen this week signals to me that prices may have bottomed in the short term as the markets watch the weather for the home stretch of the US production cycle.

There has been some recent talk of tassle wrap and some other pollination issues making headlines, but I get the sense this is anecdotal and isolated at best. Overall the weather has been pretty ideal for most of the Corn Belt. In fact in talking to many of you over the past couple of weeks, the crop looks as good as we’ve ever seen in the trade area or at least in the past 7 or 8 years.

This weeks demand headlines were mostly bearish as Weekly Export Sales for corn were only 4 million bushels with Mexico cancelling some old crop purchase and Weekly Ethanol production was in line with expections but there are concerns that the USDA may have to lower the old crop demand projection going forward in future WASDE Reports. Of course the Social Media post from President Trump about Coca Cola switching sweetners from HFCS (High Fructose Corn Syrup) to Cane Sugar may have added to corn’s defensive tone late this week.  410 million bushels of corn demand each year come from the production of HFCS. I’m sure Farm Groups and Corn Refiners alike will have something to say about the potential switch. Soybean Exports Sales were in line with expectations and ran ahead of the needed projected pace estimated by the USDA. Soybean oil price performance has been the shining star posting a 19% gain in price since the EPA’s biofuel announcement on June 13^th .

Price seasonals seem to have a strong hold on defensive price action as we head into late July and August. This recent rebound seems more like a recovery from recent lows than a long-term move higher. If anything I think it is an opportunity to move remaining old crop to make way for what appears to be a rather large supply coming and to price another increment of new crop prodution.  Some levels that I would target for Corn would be the chart gap that occurred after the July 4^th holiday of $4.15 September Futures for old crop and $4.31 December Futures for new crop. For the Soybeans I would place targets at the $10.30 November Futures level (the 200 day moving average) and the price gap made after The Independence Day Holiday at $10.42 November Futures. 

I’d encourage you to contact your local CFC originator and discuss placing some price offers with them as well as talking about potentially utilizing some of our marketing alternatives like Basis Contracts. With the size of the crop that appears to be on the way, communication will be very key to ensure some of the potential price and basis risk is mitigated.  As always we appreciate your business and I hope you have a great rest of the summer!